Five matchweeks into the 2026-27 Women's Super League season, the table is beginning to reveal some surprising storylines beneath the surface, with underlying data painting a different picture than the standings suggest for several clubs.

Manchester City remain the only team with a perfect record, winning all five of their opening fixtures to sit atop the table as defending champions. But elsewhere, the numbers tell a more complicated tale.

Arsenal entered the campaign as Opta's third favourites to lift the title and briefly climbed to narrow favourites after beating Brighton while Chelsea could only draw with Aston Villa in the opening round. Since then, however, Renée Slegers' side have managed just two points from four matches, a slump that has severely damaged their championship prospects.

Part of the problem appears to be a carryover from last season: Arsenal are creating chances but failing to convert them. Their home draws against Crystal Palace (0-0) and Manchester United (1-1) both came with positive expected goals margins of 2.2 and 1.2 respectively. Had Smilla Holmberg not struck in the 95th minute against United with her only shot of the season, the picture would look even bleaker.

The finishing troubles extend beyond one or two players. Only Lisa Baum and Alessia Russo have found the net for Arsenal this season, with Russo currently sitting 1.28 goals below her expected tally - though a hat-trick during the international break could help restore her confidence in front of goal.

There may also be a physical element at play. Using Gradient Sports' athleticism rankings, which measure stamina, explosiveness and game context among WSL players with at least 270 minutes played, Arsenal have only one player inside the top 50 - Steph Catley at 31st. Every other club in the division has at least two representatives in that bracket, with Chelsea boasting five and West Ham seven. While the correlation isn't definitive, it raises questions about whether Arsenal need greater physical intensity to match their rivals.

Brighton, meanwhile, present an entirely different story. Predicted to finish seventh by Opta, the Seagulls currently sit ninth - but their expected points tally suggests they should be third, trailing Manchester City by just 0.1. Their wastefulness has been striking at times: a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa saw Brighton dominate the expected goals 3.17 to 0.03, only for Lynn Wilms to snatch a late equaliser for the visitors in the 89th minute. They also drew at Birmingham despite leading on expected goals by 1.5, and missed four big chances in a 2-0 defeat to London City Lionesses. Should Brighton start converting their dominant performances into results, a repeat of their fifth-place finish from 2024-25 looks achievable.

Elsewhere, the data highlights an unusual trend among the league's promoted sides. Historically, teams that struggle to turn high turnovers - regaining possession within 40 metres of the opponent's goal - into shots tend to finish in the lower reaches of the table. Yet Crystal Palace rank third in the league for turnovers leading to shots, with 12, and lead the division in conversion efficiency at 33.3%. Birmingham, their fellow promoted club, rank second in that efficiency metric at 28.6%.

Birmingham's success in this area is closely tied to Océane Hurtré, who has scored all three of the club's goals stemming from high turnovers this season. The 22-year-old Frenchwoman has emerged as a joint-leader in the golden boot race with five goals, including a strike against Manchester City where she also won the ball herself. Her other turnover goals came inside the opening minutes of matches against Palace and Brighton, underlining the value of aggressive early pressing.

Based on reporting from Guardian Football.